Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial

作者：Sally C. Y. Lau, Nerida G. Wilson, Nicholas R. Golledge, Tim R. Naish, Phillip C. Watts, Cstarina N. S. Silva, Ira R. Cooke, A. Louise Allcock, Felix C. Mark, Katrin Linse, and Jan M. Strugnell

期刊：Science

以海洋为基础的南极西部冰盖（WAIS）被认为在未来气候轨迹下很容易发生不可逆转的崩塌，其临界点可能位于联合国《巴黎协定》所规定的1.5°至2°C的减缓变暖情景范围之内。了解过去类似温暖气候期间的冰量损失可以解决这一不确定性，包括在末次间冰期，当时全球海平面比今天高出5至10米，全球平均温度比工业化前高出0.5°至1.5°C。通过对环-南极章鱼的全基因组单核苷酸多态性分析，作者发现只有在WAIS完全崩溃的情况下，才有可能出现持久性、历史性的基因流信号。研究结果提供了首个经验证据，表明即使在严格的气候缓解情景下，也可能达到WAIS损失的临界点。

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（实习生叶晟晖编译）

The marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is considered vulnerable to irreversible collapse under future climate trajectories, and its tipping point may lie within the mitigated warming scenarios of 1.5° to 2°C of the United Nations Paris Agreement. Knowledge of ice loss during similarly warm past climates could resolve this uncertainty, including the Last Interglacial when global sea levels were 5 to 10 meters higher than today and global average temperatures were 0.5° to 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels. Using a panel of genome-wide, single-nucleotide polymorphisms of a circum-Antarctic octopus, we show persistent, historic signals of gene flow only possible with complete WAIS collapse. Our results provide the first empirical evidence that the tipping point of WAIS loss could be reached even under stringent climate mitigation scenarios.

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